A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
